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Decision Treeexpected value £12.1k
If the other side is…
Your caseillustrative example
Offer £18khighest expected value
Accept £18k53% likely£18.0k
Counter £9k30% likely£9.9k
Reject, defend18% likely-£1.9k
Also weighedRaise it formally £7.7kFile a claim now £7.7k
Highest expected value: Offer £18k, worth £12.1k on average against a cost-averse settler opponent. Confidence strong.
Figures are what you would walk away with. A minus means you end up worse off than doing nothing: the cost of getting there outweighs what you recover.
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